Oil prices stuck in a holding pattern, as traders take a wait-and-see approach

Oil prices stuck in a holding pattern, as traders take a wait-and-see approach

Today's energy market summary:

  • Oil prices continue to grind sideways, with Bent posting a 0.8% loss and WTI declining 1.6% on Tuesday.
  • Differentials on Canadian crude benchmarks were roughly unchanged. WCS and Canadian Light both declined about 1.5%, while condensate prices slipped about 2%.
  • The American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.5 million barrel build in US crude stockpiles for last week. Official numbers from the EIA are due to be released Wednesday morning.
  • Heating oil and gasoline fell 0.5%, while US natural gas prices were roughly unchanged.
  • After jumping to $4/GJ yesterday due to brutally cold temperatures, spot prices for Alberta's AECO gas ended the day at about $3.10. Near month prices dipped 2% to $1.75/GJ.

Today's treasury, currency and equity market action:

  • US bond yields declined again today, due in part to weak economic data south of the border. Yields in Canada, the UK and Germany also crept lower on Tuesday.
  • The US dollar moved higher by 0.3%. The pound sterling was the worst performing currency, falling 0.7%, while the Euro fell 0.3%.
  • Most North American markets managed small gains on Tuesday. The NASDAQ was once again the better performer, rising 0.7%. Overnight, the FTSE and most European exchanges were up almost 2%. Japan's Nikkei was roughly unchanged.
  • In Toronto, theTSX gained 0.6%, with mining and staples stocks leading to the upside. The Canadian energy sector was unchanged for the day.
  • In US markets, the S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The US energy sector gained 0.2%, as losses among large-cap producers offset gains in the services and refining subsectors.
  • Most foreign ADRs listed on the NYSE ended Tuesday in the green.

Today's notable energy news:

  • SemCAMS announced the start of operations at its 200 MMcf/day Wapiti Gas Plant, located near Grande Prairie, Alberta. The company says the sour gas processing facility is 95% contracted and began selling gas to market at the end of January. The project was completed on budget and two months ahead of schedule.
  • Plains All American says its planned reversal of the Capline crude pipeline should be in service by the third quarter of 2020 for light oil and early 2022 for heavy oil service. The line currently runs from Louisiana to Illinois, but operates well below capacity due to low demand. Once reversed, Capline will transport 300,000 bbl/day of crude from the Midwest region into the Gulf Coast. The line is operated by Marathon Pipe Line.
  • Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil announced the sanctioning of a US$10 billion LNG export facility in Texas. The 16 million t/y Golden Pass LNG project will be located in Sabine Pass, and is expected to begin service in 2024. Exxon owns a 30% stake in the project, while Qatar Petroleum holds the remaining 70%.
  • Energy construction firm McDermott International was awarded the construction contract for Golden Pass, said to be worth at least US$1 billion, along with joint-venture partners Chiyoda International and Zachry Group. McDermott also announced a contract from Woodside Energy for FEED of its Scarborough field gas development in Western Australia.
  • Anadarko Petroleum signed two long-term purchase agreements for its proposed Mozambique LNG export terminal - a 2 million t/y contract with Royal Dutch Shell and a 2.6 million t/y agreement with Tokyo Gas and Centric. Anadarko has a 26.5% working interest in the terminal and is working towards a positive final investment decision later this year.

Today's Q4/2018 earnings:

  • Suncor Energy swung to a $280 million net loss for the fourth quarter of last year, including a $637 million forex charge on US denominated debt. Funds from operations declined over 30% to $2 billion, blamed on a wide discount for both heavy oil and synthetic crude. Total upstream production rose to 831,000 boe/day, up 13% y/y, while output from the oil sands, including Syncrude and Fort Hills, rose to a record 740,800 bbl/day. Refinery utilization topped 100%, processing a quarterly record throughput of 467,900 bbl/day.
  • Suncor also boosted its quarterly dividend 17% to $0.42 per share, its 17th consecutive annualized dividend increase. The company approved another $2 billion share buyback program, in addition to the current $3 billion purchase, which will be completed by the end of February.
  • Anadarko Petroleum reported a 74% jump in quarterly profits, rising to US$184 million in Q4. Production rose about 10% y/y to 701,000 boe/day. The company repurchased US$3.75 billion of its shares last year, representing 12% of its public float.
  • Plains All American reported an adjusted net profit of US$652 million in Q4, almost double the previous year. The gains were attributed to higher volume in the Permian Basin, start-up of Sunrise II and ramp-up of volumes on the Diamond pipeline. Full year earnings jumped 64% to US$1.57 billion.
  • BP reported an "underlying replacement cost profit" of US$12.7 billion for the full year 2018, more than double the previous year. Operating cash flow increased 33% y/y while production rose about 2% to 3.7 million boe/day. Fourth quarter profits came in at US$3.5 billion on revenues of US$75.7 billion, up 10% y/y. CFO Brian Gilvary says BP divested US$3.5 billion in assets last year and plans another US$10 billion in asset sales over the next two years.
OIL PRICES - DAILY % CHANGE
WTI DIFFERENTIALS
STREAM CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H
BRENT$61.98▼0.850.47
 
86.29
WTI$53.66▼1.642.53
 
76.41
CDN LT$49.85▼1.320.83
 
69.32
C5+$51.67▼1.737.04
 
71.40
WCS$44.21▼1.512.59
 
56.21

CRUDE OIL FUTURES CURVES
BRENT
WTI
█ FEB 5   █ JAN 29   █ JAN 22   █ JAN 15   (USD/BBL)
MARKET OVERVIEW
MARKETS
CURRENCIES & YIELDS
    TSX SECTORS
52-WK
    SPX SECTORS
52-WK
ENERGY SECTORS

TSX ENERGY SUB-SECTORS

SPX ENERGY SUB-SECTORS
TSX ENERGY STOCKS
TSX BULLISH INDICATORS
TOP 5
  • Nuvista Energy (NVA +2%)
  • Whitecap Res (WCP +2%)
  • Shawcor (SCL +1.9%)
  • Mullen Group (MTL +1.8%)
  • Parkland Fuel (PKI +1.8%)
  • 12-MO HIGHS
  • Enbridge (ENB +0.8%)
  • 10-YR HIGHS
  • None
  • GOLDEN CROSSES
  • None
  • TSX BEARISH INDICATORS
    BOTTOM
    5
  • Ensign Energy Svcs (ESI -3%)
  • Encana (ECA -2.8%)
  • MEG Energy (MEG -2.3%)
  • Birchcliff Energy (BIR -2.2%)
  • Seven Generations (VII -2%)
  • 12-MO LOWS
  • Crescent Point (CPG -1.6%)
  • 10-YR LOWS
  • Crescent Point (CPG -1.6%)
  • DEATH CROSSES
  • None
  • COMPANY TICKER CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H CHART
    INTEGRATED
    Suncor EnergySU43.50▲0.335.53
     
    55.47D   W
    Imperial OilIMO36.13▼-0.733.43
     
    44.91D   W
    Husky EnergyHSE15.640.013.33
     
    22.99D   W
    MIDSTREAM
    EnbridgeENB49.45▲0.837.36
     
    49.49D   W
    TransCanadaTRP56.09▲0.647.90
     
    59.51D   W
    Pembina PipelinePPL47.42▲1.237.60
     
    47.84D   W
    Inter PipelineIPL20.79▼-0.218.60
     
    25.66D   W
    Keyera KEY28.42▲0.624.05
     
    38.91D   W
    Gibson EnergyGEI20.14▲1.115.68
     
    23.32D   W
    LARGE CAP E&P
    Cdn Natural ResCNQ35.75▲0.530.11
     
    49.08D   W
    Cenovus EnergyCVE10.23▲1.28.74
     
    14.84D   W
    EncanaECA8.92▼-2.86.90
     
    18.54D   W
    TourmalineTOU18.02▲0.715.84
     
    26.19D   W
    Vermilion EnergyVET32.02▼-0.826.67
     
    49.67D   W
    SERVICES
    Pason SystemsPSI19.99▼-0.216.05
     
    24.57D   W
    EnerflexEFX17.17▼-0.213.55
     
    18.72D   W
    Mullen Group MTL12.17▲1.811.39
     
    16.93D   W
    ShawcorSCL20.00▲1.915.11
     
    28.89D   W
    Secure EnergySES7.82▼-1.16.25
     
    8.91D   W
    REFINING & MARKETING
    Parkland FuelPKI37.71▲1.827.36
     
    47.45D   W
    S&P 500 ENERGY STOCKS
    SPX BULLISH INDICATORS
    TOP 5
  • HollyFrontier (HFC +2.3%)
  • Marathon Petro (MPC +1.9%)
  • Baker Hughes (BHGE +1.9%)
  • Valero Energy (VLO +1.5%)
  • Schlumberger (SLB +1.2%)
  • 12-MO HIGHS
  • None
  • 10-YR HIGHS
  • None
  • GOLDEN CROSSES
  • None
  • SPX BEARISH INDICATORS
    BOTTOM
    5
  • Newfield Expl (NFX -3%)
  • Diamondback (FANG -2.6%)
  • Hess Corp (HES -2.3%)
  • Concho Res (CXO -1.6%)
  • Marathon Oil (MRO -1.3%)
  • 12-MO LOWS
  • None
  • 10-YR LOWS
  • None
  • DEATH CROSSES
  • None
  • COMPANY TICKER CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H CHART
    INTEGRATED
    Exxon MobilXOM75.59▲1.064.65
     
    87.36D   W
    ChevronCVX119.48▼-0.2100.22
     
    131.08D   W
    MIDSTREAM
    Kinder MorganKMI18.47▲0.614.62
     
    18.67D   W
    Williams CoWMB27.35▼-0.120.36
     
    32.22D   W
    ONEOKOKE66.21▲0.450.26
     
    71.99D   W
    LARGE CAP E&P
    ConocoPhillipsCOP69.26▼-1.050.18
     
    80.24D   W
    EOG ResourcesEOG98.35▼-1.082.04
     
    133.53D   W
    Occidental PetroOXY67.30▼-0.756.83
     
    87.67D   W
    Anadarko PetroAPC49.08▼-0.140.40
     
    76.70D   W
    Pioneer Natural ResPXD143.59▼-0.7119.08
     
    213.40D   W
    SERVICES
    SchlumbergerSLB45.14▲1.234.99
     
    75.43D   W
    HalliburtonHAL32.30▲0.224.70
     
    54.91D   W
    Baker HughesBHGE25.03▲1.920.09
     
    37.76D   W
    Ntl-Oilwell VarcoNOV30.20▲0.224.27
     
    49.08D   W
    TechnipFMCFTI23.60▲0.418.20
     
    34.39D   W
    REFINERS
    Marathon PetroMPC67.18▲1.954.29
     
    88.45D   W
    Phillips 66PSX95.17▲0.478.44
     
    123.97D   W
    Valero EnergyVLO85.96▲1.568.81
     
    126.98D   W
    HollyFrontierHFC56.42▲2.342.42
     
    83.28D   W
    NYSE ADRs
    ADRs BULLISH INDICATORS
    12-MO HIGHS
  • None
  • 10-YR HIGHS
  • None
  • GOLDEN CROSSES
  • None
  • ADRs BEARISH INDICATORS
    12-MO LOWS
  • None
  • 10-YR LOWS
  • None
  • DEATH CROSSES
  • None
  • COMPANY TICKER CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H CHART
    Royal Dutch ShellRDS.A63.68▲0.455.04
     
    73.86D   W
    TotalTOT55.89▲0.849.70
     
    65.69D   W
    BPBP42.82▲3.536.15
     
    47.83D   W
    EniE34.06▲0.129.75
     
    40.15D   W
    EquinorEQNR23.47▲0.619.95
     
    28.93D   W
    ANALYST RATINGS

    UPGRADES

    • None

    DOWNGRADES

    • CNX Midstream Partners (CNXM): Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral at JP Morgan.

    LATEST ENERGY NEWS

    UPDATED: DAILY (END-OF-DAY)

    SOURCES:
    • OIL PRICES REFLECT NEAR MONTH CONTRACT FROM THE NYMEX/CME GROUP
    • EQUITY PRICES PROVIDED BY NYSE & TMX GROUP
    • CHARTPACKS COURTESY STOCKCHARTS.COM (DIVIDEND ADJUSTED)

    NOTES:
    • OIL PRICES, FUTURES AND DIFFERENTIALS IN USD/BBL
    • C5+ = EDMONTON CONDENSATE
    • FUTURES CURVES SHOW PRICES FOR NEAR-MONTH CONTRACT (C1) AND NEXT 5-MONTHS (C2-C6)
    • TSX SHARE PRICES IN CAD; S&P 500 PRICES IN USD
    • ADR: AMERICAN DEPOSITORY RECEIPTS LISTED ON NYSE IN USD
    • SHARE PRICE CHANGES (INCL. NEW HIGHS & LOWS) EXCLUDE DIVIDENDS
    Oil prices perk up on better-than-expected US inventory numbers

    Oil prices perk up on better-than-expected US inventory numbers

    Oil prices dip despite lower output from Russia and Venezuelan crude stranded at sea

    Oil prices dip despite lower output from Russia and Venezuelan crude stranded at sea