North American benchmarks post fourth day of gains, on expectations of further drawdowns in US crude stockpiles

North American benchmarks post fourth day of gains, on expectations of further drawdowns in US crude stockpiles

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Today's energy market update:

  • After a relatively uneventful Monday, energy markets were once again little moved on Tuesday. WTI rose 0.3% for the day, while Brent edged up 0.1%. Gasoline prices rose 1.4%, reversing all of yesterday's losses, while heating oil and Henry Hub both gained almost 1%.

  • In Canada, WCS gained 0.8%, while condensate prices rose 0.5%, as both differentials to WTI narrowed slightly. Canadian Light rose 0.3%, as its discount to WTI was unchanged.

  • Today's currency and equity market action:

  • The US dollar edged up 0.1%, moving back above 97. The loonie decline 0.2%.

  • In New York, the NYSE dipped 0.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ rose 0.5%. The S&P 500 Large Cap Index rose 0.1%, while the SPX energy sector also rose 0.1% for the day.

  • In Toronto, the TSX moved up 0.5%, with gains seen across all sectors. Energy was by far the best performing sector, rising 1.5% for the day.

Today's supply/demand update:

  • According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude stockpiles are estimated to have fallen by over 8 million barrels last week. Official numbers from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are due to be released Wednesday morning.

  • In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA revised its 2019 full year US output forecast to 12.36 million bbl/day, up 40,000 bbl/day from its previous forecast. Next year's production forecast was left unchanged at 13.26 million bbl/day. 

  • Expectations for global oil supply this year were also increased by 260,000 bbl/day to 101.1 million bbl/day. Total 2019 global consumption is now estimated at 101.0 million bbl/day, down 140,000 bbl/day from its previous forecast. World oil supply is also expected to outstrip demand by 150,000 bbl/day in 2020. As a result, the EIA expects global stockpiles to continue rising through the remainder of 2019 and through the end of 2020.

  • Expectations for this year's average WTI and Brent spot prices were little changed at US$59.50 and US$66.50 per barrel, respectively.

Today's notable energy news:

  • Senior executives from Suncor Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, Imperial Oil and Cenovus have confirmed discussions with Alberta's UCP government to takeover crude-by-rail contracts signed by the previous NDP government. Speaking at a TD Securities conference this week, the group says they would like to see the province abandon its production quotas, allowing each operator to boost output, sending the additional barrels to market by rail. The rail contracts signed with CP Rail and CN Rail eventually ramp-up to 120,000 bbl/day.

  • Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (CPCC) and Qatar Petroleum announced plans to jointly develop a new petrochemical plant in the Gulf Coast. The US$8 billion project will include a 2,000 t/y ethylene cracker and two 1,000 t/y high-density polyethylene units. CPCC would own a 51% stake, overseeing construction and operation of the facility. A final investment decision is expected by 2021, with start-up targeted for 2024. In late June, CPCC and Qatar Petroleum teamed up on another mega-petrochemical complex, to be constructed in Doha, Qatar.

  • Saudi Aramco awarded 34 EPC contracts worth an estimated US$18 billion to boost output at two of its offshore oilfields. The company plans to increase production from the Marjan field by 300,000 bbl/day of medium crude and 2.5 Bcf/day of natural gas, while light crude output from the Berri field will be boosted by 250,000 bbl/day.

OIL PRICES - DAILY % CHANGE
WTI DIFFERENTIALS
STREAM CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H
BRENT$64.16▲0.150.47
 
86.29
WTI$57.83▲0.342.53
 
76.41
SCO$58.67▲0.325.15
 
74.46
C5+$53.72▲0.537.04
 
71.40
CDN LT$53.56▲0.320.83
 
69.32
WCS$45.34▲0.812.59
 
56.30

CRUDE OIL FUTURES CURVES
BRENT
WTI
█ JUL 9   █ JUL 2   █ JUN 25   █ JUN 18   (USD/BBL)
MARKET OVERVIEW
MARKETS
CURRENCIES & YIELDS
TSX SECTORS
TSX SECTORS - 52WK
SPX SECTORS
SPX SECTORS - 52WK
ENERGY SECTORS

TSX ENERGY SUB-SECTORS

SPX ENERGY SUB-SECTORS
TSX ENERGY STOCKS
TSX BULLISH INDICATORS
TOP 5
Cdn Natural Res (CNQ +3.2%)
Suncor Energy (SU +2.6%)
Gibson Energy (GEI +2.1%)
MEG Energy (MEG +2%)
Keyera (KEY +1.9%)
12-MO
HIGHS
None
TSX BEARISH INDICATORS
BOTTOM
5
CES Energy (CEU -5.6%)
Whitecap Res (WCP -4%)
Kelt Exploration (KEL -3.4%)
Mullen Group (MTL -3.3%)
Birchcliff Energy (BIR -2.9%)
12-MO
LOWS
Baytex Energy (BTE -1.6%)
Gran Tierra (GTE +0.5%)
Kelt Exploration (KEL -3.4%)
COMPANY TICKER CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H CHART
INTEGRATED
Suncor EnergySU42.15▲2.635.53
 
55.47D   W
Imperial OilIMO36.79▲1.833.52
 
44.91D   W
Husky EnergyHSE12.46▲0.912.18
 
22.99D   W
MIDSTREAM
EnbridgeENB47.99▲1.939.40
 
51.22D   W
TC EnergyTRP65.65▲1.247.90
 
66.93D   W
Pembina PipelinePPL49.55▲1.639.15
 
50.65D   W
Inter PipelineIPL22.12▲0.618.60
 
25.66D   W
Keyera KEY34.31▲1.924.05
 
38.91D   W
Gibson EnergyGEI23.77▲2.116.90
 
24.18D   W
LARGE CAP E&P
Cdn Natural ResCNQ35.19▲3.230.11
 
49.08D   W
Cenovus EnergyCVE11.96▲1.88.74
 
14.84D   W
EncanaECA6.34▲0.26.12
 
18.54D   W
TourmalineTOU16.43▼-0.415.39
 
25.79D   W
Vermilion EnergyVET28.40▼-0.126.54
 
49.67D   W
SERVICES
Pason SystemsPSI18.28▼-0.717.18
 
24.57D   W
EnerflexEFX16.56▼-0.913.56
 
20.38D   W
Mullen Group MTL9.48▼-3.39.36
 
16.93D   W
ShawcorSCL17.42▼-1.015.11
 
28.89D   W
Secure EnergySES7.10▼-1.56.25
 
9.44D   W
REFINING & MARKETING
Parkland FuelPKI41.97▲1.231.59
 
47.45D   W
S&P 500 ENERGY STOCKS
SPX BULLISH INDICATORS
TOP 5
Apache (APA +1.7%)
Halliburton (HAL +1.4%)
Valero Energy (VLO +1.1%)
Williams Co (WMB +1.1%)
HollyFrontier (HFC +1%)
12-MO
HIGHS
None
SPX BEARISH INDICATORS
BOTTOM
5
Pioneer Natural Res (PXD -1.7%)
TechnipFMC (FTI -1.6%)
Ntl-Oilwell Varco (NOV -1.4%)
EOG Resources (EOG -1.1%)
Baker Hughes (BHGE -0.8%)
12-MO
LOWS
None
COMPANY TICKER CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H CHART
INTEGRATED
Exxon MobilXOM76.43▼-0.164.65
 
87.36D   W
ChevronCVX123.35▼-0.2100.22
 
128.55D   W
MIDSTREAM
Kinder MorganKMI21.24▲0.814.62
 
21.50D   W
Williams CoWMB28.74▲1.120.36
 
32.22D   W
ONEOKOKE69.82▲0.450.26
 
71.99D   W
LARGE CAP E&P
ConocoPhillipsCOP59.890.056.75
 
80.24D   W
EOG ResourcesEOG89.15▼-1.180.41
 
133.53D   W
Occidental PetroOXY49.61▲0.647.00
 
86.60D   W
Anadarko PetroAPC70.99▲0.140.40
 
76.70D   W
Pioneer Natural ResPXD143.36▼-1.7119.08
 
193.03D   W
SERVICES
SchlumbergerSLB40.20▲0.834.46
 
69.61D   W
HalliburtonHAL23.57▲1.420.98
 
47.03D   W
Baker HughesBHGE25.00▼-0.820.09
 
35.55D   W
Ntl-Oilwell VarcoNOV21.52▼-1.419.57
 
49.08D   W
TechnipFMCFTI24.56▼-1.618.20
 
33.60D   W
REFINERS
Marathon PetroMPC54.64▲0.645.47
 
88.45D   W
Phillips 66PSX97.72▲0.878.44
 
123.97D   W
Valero EnergyVLO82.24▲1.168.81
 
122.42D   W
HollyFrontierHFC46.35▲1.037.73
 
76.56D   W
NYSE ADRs
COMPANY TICKER CLOSE %CHG L 52WK H CHART
Royal Dutch ShellRDS.A64.44▲0.055.04
 
71.85D   W
TotalTOT55.48▼-0.249.70
 
65.69D   W
BPBP40.95▼-0.336.28
 
47.25D   W
EniE32.65▼-0.429.75
 
39.16D   W
EquinorEQNR19.72▼-1.618.91
 
28.93D   W
ANALYST RATINGS

UPGRADES

  • Laredo Petroleum (LPI): Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

DOWNGRADES

  • Crew Energy (CR.TO): Downgraded from Buy to Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity.

  • Gulfport Energy (GPOR): Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform at Credit Suisse.

  • Source Energy Services (SHLE.TO): Downgraded from Speculative Buy to Hold at Canaccord Genuity.

  • Southwestern Energy (SWN): Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform at Credit Suisse.

  • QEP Resources (QEP): Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform at Oppenheimer.

LATEST ENERGY NEWS

UPDATED: DAILY (END-OF-DAY)

SOURCES:
• OIL PRICES REFLECT NEAR MONTH CONTRACT FROM THE NYMEX/CME GROUP
• EQUITY PRICES PROVIDED BY NYSE & TMX GROUP
• PRICE CHARTS PROVIDED BY STOCKCHARTS.COM ARE DIVIDEND ADJUSTED

NOTES:
• OIL PRICES, FUTURES AND DIFFERENTIALS SHOWN IN USD/BBL
• WCS = WESTERN CANADIAN SELECT; C5+ = EDMONTON CONDENSATE; SCO = SYNTHETIC CRUDE
• FUTURES CURVES REFLECT NEAR-MONTH CONTRACT (C1) AND NEXT 5-MONTHS (C2-C6)
• TSX SHARE PRICES IN CAD; S&P 500 PRICES IN USD
• ADR: AMERICAN DEPOSITORY RECEIPTS LISTED ON NYSE IN USD
• SHARE PRICE CHANGES (INCL. NEW HIGHS & LOWS) EXCLUDE DIVIDENDS
Oil prices move up sharply, as production comes offline in the Gulf of Mexico

Oil prices move up sharply, as production comes offline in the Gulf of Mexico

TSX energy stocks tumble another 1%, and look to retest lows of 2019

TSX energy stocks tumble another 1%, and look to retest lows of 2019

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